Every baseball fan in the world knows that Randy Johnson won his 300th game. It is an honor to get it. It is one of the toughest things to do, especially now, with a five-man rotation, it's pretty much impossible.
300 wins means you are a champion. Like the song, Heart of a Champion by Nelly, the lyrics mean everything when you win your 300th game.
With a little help from Baseball Prospectus, I can find out who has the best and worse chances of winning 300 games. Let's go!
Well, everyone knew Randy Johnson was going to win 300 games. He was five wins away from it and look, he got it. It was just that easy for The Big Unit.
According to Baseball Prospectus, he had the highest ERA (with 5.71) to have start the season to get 300 wins. It was higher than Don Sutton, who had an ERA of 5.66. But now that we have seen him win 300, it is hard to see another.
Right now, the closest pitcher towards 300 is Jamie Moyer with 250. But guess how old this stud is? 46! I was reading Cody Swartz article about Randy Johnson getting 300 and saying is there ever going to be another 300-game winner. Then I was scrolling towards the comments and Shane Howard, one of the best writers (and one of my favorite) on BleacherReport.com said this that made me crack up:
"From the way things stand now, I don't think anyone will get there from the current batch. Moyer can probably pitch 'til he's 60 and he'll still look decent. Maybe he'll get it. LOL."
—Shane Howard
So, can Moyer pitch until he's 60 years old? Probably not but he could. No, that'll just be un-normal. Too un-normal.
If Sabathia had 198 wins at age 34, he would have to average 15 wins for the next seven years to get 300.
The only was Moyer could reach 300 wins is if he could play until he's 49 or 50. He would have to have ten wins in one year and then 20 in the next two years to make it. Too impossible. We probably might see Moyer at 260 at best.
The other candidate: Andy Pettitte. Nope. He can't. He is 37 and he doesn't look like he can get it. He probably have 250, like Moyer, at best or higher. Luckily for Pettitte, he is 37 and if he can play until he is 46, he might have a chance. But the chances are slim. It might be the same exact thing with the 37-year-old Pedro Martinez, who has 214 wins.
John Smoltz can't get it. He will never. At 42 years old and with 210 wins, it just impossible for him to get 300 wins. Here are the other guys who just can't get it: 42-year-old Tim Wakefield with 184 wins, 36-year-old Bartolo Colon with 153, and 34-year-old Livan Hernandez with 151.
Some people can't even get to the Hall of Fame because of 300 wins sometimes. It is impossible to get it this decade with five-man rotations. And relievers, those guys were meant to not have 300 wins for the other pitchers in front of them.
According to Baseball Prospectus, starting pitchers averaged to play 5.8 innings per game. Now can you understand that?
Here is a little expert from the Baseball Prospectus article that you might be interested in:
"Regardless, the attachment to the number 300 for a baseball fan lingers. The Baseball Writers' Association of America hasn't elected a starting pitcher to the Hall of Fame since 1999 (Nolan Ryan) and hasn't elected a starter with fewer than 300 wins since 1990 (Fergie Jenkins). With the disappearance of the 300-clubbers on the ballot, the writers have barred the door for the eminently worthy Bert Blyleven, almost solely because he missed the mark by 13 wins, and they never came close to inducting Tommy John (288 wins) or Jim Kaat (283), pitchers with shakier credentials. Although Roger Clemens, Greg Maddux, and Tom Glavine have reached 300 wins this decade, the Rocket's steroid-related controversy suggests that it will take until 2014, when Maddux is eligible, for another starter to earn election to the Hall."
—Baseball Prospectus
Did you read that? It is just surprising, isn't it?
BP sees that in seven years, there will be 81 wins for both C.C. Sabathia and Johan Santana from 2009-2015. So with that, BP says that when Santana is 36, he'll have 190 wins, while the 34-year-old Sabathia will have 198 wins in 2015. I like how BP works on this.
So right now, Sabathia looks to have the best chance at 300 wins if he keeps it up. Here is what I found with MY research. If Sabathia has 198 wins at age 34 in 2015, he would have to average 15 wins for the next seven years. So at age 41, he would have 303 wins.
For Santana, if he averaged 14 wins for the next eight years at age 36 in 2015, he would have 302 wins at age 44.
If Santana had 190 wins at age 36, he would have to average 14 wins for the next eight years for 300 wins.
See how things work? It is possible to get 300 wins with Santana and Sabathia. But it will be tough. Can Sabathia average 15 wins for seven straight years? Or can Santana average 14 wins for the next eight years? It is tough and it might not even happen.
Here are the stats from BP: Sabathia has 17 percent chance of getting 300 wins, Roy Halladay has a six percent chance of getting 300 wins.
Then there is Carlos Zambrano, who has a five percent chance of 300 wins. But Zambrano won't get it. He will probably get 200 because according to the recent Matt Miselis article from BleacherReport.com, Zambrano said he will retire in the next five years.
Johan Santana has a five percent chance, Roy Oswalt has one, and Jake Peavy and Josh Beckett at zero.
Brandon Webb also has a five percent chance as well, but with 87 wins at age 30, it'll be an impossible feat to make.
So far, the guys with the best chances at 300 is C.C. Sabathia, Johan Santana, and Roy Halladay. It'll be a tough thing to follow. It'll take a while for these guys to get it, but in the future, these guys may have a chance.
Information from Baseball Prospectus was used in this article.
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