Ever since “The Decision” nearly two years ago, it has become Miami, and their stars LeBron James and Dwyane Wade, against the world. Last year, the Mavericks got together a perfect storm of deadly-accurate offense from Dirk Nowitzki and Jason Terry and dominating defense from Tyson Chandler to eliminate the Heat.
Now, America’s hopes rest on the lanky shoulders of Kevin Durant in a battle of good vs. evil.
The only question left before we sit down to watch is who has the upper hand in this matchup? Let’s analyze a few different categories to find out.
How Did They Get Here?
Oklahoma City got through the first two rounds with relative ease by sweeping the defending-champion Mavs and dispatching of Kobe Bryant and his Lakers in the second round. In the conference finals, things started out choppy for the Thunder as the Spurs took the first two games in dominant fashion for their 19th and 20th straight victories and looked poised to win their 5th championship in the past 15 years. But the Thunder stepped up their game while the Spurs shooters cooled off, and the trio of Durant, Russell Westbrook, and James Harden willed their team to victory in the next four games.
Miami cruised past Carmelo Anthony and the Knicks in the first round before running into a physical and determined Pacers team in the conference semifinals. The whole series was a series of fights and barbs from both sides through the media, but after going down two games to one and losing Chris Bosh to injury in Game 1, James and Wade refused to be denied. The Heat won the next three games, much to the dismay of Larry Bird. The Heat got in another big hole against the Celtics in the Eastern Conference finals, as they had to fight off two elimination games. LeBron took Game 6 himself with 45 points and 15 rebounds in hostile territory against an inspired Celtics team that came up just short.
Edge: Thunder
Offense
Both teams feature three excellent offensive players (LeBron, Wade, and Bosh vs. Durant, Westbrook, and Harden), with role players to fill the gaps. The Heat have more talent in their big 3 and have a better offensive supporting cast with Udonis Haslem cleaning up the offensive boards and shooters like Mike Miller, Shane Battier, and even Mario Chalmers penalizing defenses for collapsing on drives.
I certainly appreciate what Kendrick Perkins, Serge Ibaka, and Thabo Sefolosha bring to OKC, but on the offensive end they can’t create their own shots. That said, LeBron and Wade can get lured into trying to go 1-on-5 at times, while the Thunder’s role players know who got them here. This makes the Heat manageable if Oklahoma City can stop them from getting out in transition and using their freakish athleticism to get too many easy buckets.
Edge: Heat
Defense
The Thunder’s big 3 are their two guards and their small forward. This means that most of their offense is going to need to come from the perimeter. The Heat are uniquely equipped to combat this attack due to their suffocating perimeter defense. LeBron gets a ton of credit for his offense, but when he is focused, his defense too is unrivaled. Westbrook could get his team in a lot of trouble if he doesn’t see the Heat’s pressure coming, but I don’t think even the Heat can stop Durant from scoring from all over the court. If Westbrook falters, Harden is also great at distributing the ball, so the Thunder at least have options.
For all the points they put up, the Heat are noticeably less effective when they settle for jumpers, as LeBron and Wade are two of the best in the league at finishing near the rim in traffic. Oklahoma City certainly has the length inside via Ibaka and Perkins to force the Heat outside by altering shots. Perkins has more experience against the Heat than you’d expect due to his time with Celtics before last season’s deadline deal for Jeff Green. Most of the Thunder’s supporting cast plays great defense, and that could be huge for them.
Edge: Thunder
Coaching
Both coaches are relatively untested when it comes to winning this deep in the playoffs. Despite the more talented roster, Miami’s Coach Erik Spoelstra was unable to lead his team to the title last year. I sort of feel bad for Spoelstra, to be honest. LeBron and Wade are tremendous players, but aren’t the best matches for each other. This has led to many rough patches and frustration in the locker room. If he fails to bring back some hardware to mentor Pat Riley this year, Dwyane Wade’s tirade at him last series may spell the end of his tenure with the Heat.
The Thunder’s Scott Brooks certainly gets along better with his players, but at times he looked lost with his substitution pattern against San Antonio. This being his first trip to the Finals as a coach, we’ll have to see how he responds.
Edge: Thunder
X-Factor
Miami just got Chris Bosh back in game 5 against the Celtics. There is no telling how he will respond to the contact that is sure to come his way in the post from Perkins and Ibaka. If Bosh can play at close to 100%, that should free up space for James and Wade to play their best.
Russell Westbrook makes 5-10 spectacular plays per game, but I’m not convinced that a score-first point guard is the best kind. Westbrook is also a tad inconsistent and has been prone to mental errors and pouting when he doesn’t get calls. This led some to believe the Thunder might be best-served by trading him last off-season. If he can play smart and under control, the Thunder could be too much to handle offensively.
Edge: Heat
Bottom Line
The Thunder should be fresher, but they are more inexperienced at this level of competition. I think that comes back to bite them this year. I hope that I’m wrong, but LeBron showed the killer instinct he’s always been missing in games 6 and 7 against the Celtics. If he continues that, the Heat will take their talents back to South Beach for a victory parade in a couple of weeks.
Final Prediction: Heat in 6
Johnny Hasson is an avid sports fan and doesn’t back down from a good debate. When he’s not writing about sports, he loves to try new beers, play Smart Live Blackjack, and play flag football with his friends.
