With a great Wild Card round, it's time to get into the Divisional round of the 2013 NFL Playoffs! Will there be upsets? Who will win? Check out the preview and the predictions for the NFC.
Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49ers
This game may be the toughest one to analyze this week, as both teams have a realistic chance to win. San Francisco is a more balanced squad, but they come in with a much less seasoned quarterback. Still, Colin Kaepernick (136-218, 1,814 yards, 10 TDs, 3 INT, 415 rushing yards, 5 rushing TDs) looks like a legend in the making.
Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers (371-552, 4,295 yards, 39 TDs, 8 INTs, 259 rushing yards, 2 rushing TDs) came into multiple games this year without a full contingent of his most effective receivers. It's not surprising that he suffered 51 sacks this season for a total loss of 293 yards.
The real weakness of the Packers this year is their lack of a superstar running back. None of their rushers eclipsed 500 yards on the year, and the Packers scored just nine total rushing touchdowns on the season. They ranked 20th in the league in rushing and 17th in rushing yards allowed on defense.
The Packers defense also didn't make the top 10 in most statistical categories, so the offense bears most of the load, which puts Rodgers and his receiver corps into an extremely high-pressure situation on Saturday night.
Rodgers might be the kind of quarterback who can eke out an upset, but the Niners already started their season by beating the Packers by 8 points. Now they come into this game with an extra week of rest. Running back Frank Gore is sure to be a huge factor after putting up 1,214 yards on 258 carries, scoring eight touchdowns over the course of the regular season.
Kaepernick is an ever-present running-threat as well, and he is actually the team's second-leading rusher. That's not bad at all for a guy who had limited starting experience (seven games) this season. He only saw one snap in the game against the Packers, rushing for 17 yards.
Outside linebacker Clay Matthews is the main standout on the Packers defense, compiling 32 solo tackles, 11 assists and 13 sacks on the season. He also forced a fumble. The 49ers meanwhile have a much better version of Clay at the same position in Aldon Smith. Smith's 50 solo tackles and 16 assists led the team along with his 19.5 sacks and three forced fumbles.
Prediction: Kaepernick will continue to put together they type of season that could rival Tom Brady's first entry into the spotlight with the New England Patriots. He can do as much with his feet as he can with his arm, and this game will be no exception.
As long as Smith plays on defense, look for Rodgers to keep struggling with sacks. The 49ers will be much more balanced on both sides of the ball, and Rodgers won't be able to carry the team with even his best offensive performance.
Final Score: 34-17, 49ers.
Seattle Seahawks vs. Atlanta Falcons
This is the only game in this round of the playoffs that isn't a repeat of a regular season game. That makes this match-up another tough one to call for one team or the other.
The Falcons only lost three games this year, but all three were against very weak teams (New Orleans, Carolina and Tampa Bay). The Seahawks lost five games, many of them to teams just as bad as Atlanta lost to, but they ended the season on a five-game winning streak before upsetting the Washington Redskins last week.
Two of those games (against Arizona in Week 14 and Buffalo in Week 15) making up Seattle's end-of-the-season winning streak were won by a combined 108-17 margin. This team can put up huge offensive numbers, and head coach Pete Carroll proved last week he is great at making needed adjustments on defense to staunch a fast start when he has to.
Still, Atlanta is on a different level than the Redskins. This week, the Seahawks face a much healthier quarterback with a slew of threatening targets to throw to.
Matt Ryan (422-615, 4,719 yards, 32 TDs, 14 INTs) has one of the best tight ends in the NFL at his disposal in Tony Gonzalez (93 receptions, 930 yards, 8 TDs). Additionally, Ryan can rely on outstanding wide receivers like Roddy White and Julio Jones, who combined for a season total of 2,549 yards and 17 touchdowns with both averaging around 15 yards per catch.
The Falcons running game is not dominant, but Michael Turner's 800 yards and 10 touchdowns on the year make him a threat to churn up some key yardage on the ground when his team needs him most. Defensively, the Falcons are fairly mundane, but they still rank fifth in points allowed with an 18.7 average.
The main strength of the Seahawks is their balance on both sides of the ball. Their defense is much better than Atlanta's, ranking first in points-allowed with an average just over 15. They also rank fourth in total yards allowed per game with a 306.2 average.
Meanwhile, the offense is anchored by the amazing play of rookie quarterback Russell Wilson (252-393, 3,118 yards, 26 TDs, 10 INT) and a running game that ranks third in the league with an average of 161.2 yards per game.
Wilson was the team's second-leading rusher with 489 yards and four touchdowns on 94 attempts. Leading back Marshawn Lynch racked up 1,590 yards on 315 attempts, scoring 11 touchdowns on the season. Both Lynch and Wilson averaged around 5 yards per carry.
This game should be the most competitive playoff of the week. My head says the Falcons are too good to lose this one, but my heart says the Seahawks have too much momentum to jeopardize their six-game winning streak.
Prediction: Ryan moves on to face the 49ers next week with help from Gonzalez, Jones and White. Wilson won't benefit from an injury to the opposing quarterback like he did last week, and the Falcons won't get shutout after the first quarter.
Wilson will cap an incredible year with another great showing with some impressive numbers, but he and Lynch won't be able to run and throw their way to victory this week, even if they only fall to the Falcons by a field goal. It will be Atlanta's day at home, though I don't like their chances of beating the 49ers next week.
Final Score: 28-24, Falcons.
