Only 37 days separate us from the 2013 NBA Playoffs beginning. Both the Western and Eastern Conferences have undergone major overhauls as the season has progressed. It is a rarity that every team expected to finish high in the standings actually does so. Unforeseen injuries, mid-season trades and career drop-off years all contribute to expectations not being met by our favorite teams.
The Western Conference playoff-picture is all but set from top-to-bottom. A few teams at the very bottom like the Minnesota Timberwolves, New Orleans Hornets, Phoenix Suns and Sacramento Kings are out of the playoff-race. They do not have enough time to make up ground on the rest of pack.
That leaves 11 teams battling for eight playoff-spots. With that, it's time to take a look at where all 11 teams will end up, which ones will make the cut and which ones will come up short when the regular season ends.
Portland Trail Blazers (39-24, 11th Seed)
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Rip City’s chances of making a postseason appearance this year are very slim on account of two of the three teams keeping them out of the eighth spot have surged in recent weeks.
Portland suffered a stretch over the past few weeks where they lost 10 of their 14 games. A setback this severe eliminates most teams’ chances of reaching the playoffs, especially one on the fringe of even being in playoff contention.
To make a run at the eighth spot, they will need to go at least 13-6, if not better, in their last 19 games. This will require some outstanding play from Nic Batum, Damian Lillard and LaMarcus Aldridge.
Dallas Mavericks (30-33, 10th Seed)
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Mark Cuban’s club has shown an impressive amount of resilience this season, despite getting off to a very slow start and playing significant amounts of time without some of their biggest stars.
Dirk Nowitzki started the season sidelined by an injury, but O.J. Mayo was better than advertised and kept the Mavericks at least out of the cellar in the West. When Nowitzki finally took the court, Mayo was already cooling off and is now not much of a factor.
It will probably take around a 12-7 effort in their last 19 games to be in the mix for the eighth seed.
Utah Jazz (33-32, 9th Seed)
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For weeks, it seemed that the Jazz had sown up the seventh or eighth seed for the Western Conference playoffs, but then they decided to lose five of their last six games and lose their postseason-foothold in the process.
Now that the hole has been dug, they will have to find a way to string together some wins to overtake either the Rockets or Lakers for the eighth seed while holding off the Mavericks and Trail Blazers that attempting to surpass them from behind.
Record-wise, something along the lines of 10-7 in their last 17 games will probably be good enough to earn them a playoff berth. That is a lofty goal considering how they have played lately.
Los Angeles Lakers (34-32, 8th Seed)
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They’ve been through it all this season and now for the first time all year long, things are starting to fall into place for the Lakers. If the season were to end today, they would possess the eighth seed and be matched up with the San Antonio Spurs.
They have worked incredibly hard to earn this standing, and winning seven of their last 10 games has a lot to do with it. In their last 16 games, all they need to focus on is withstanding pressure from the teams trying to catch up to them, although truth be told, their goal should be to attain the sixth seed by the time the playoffs arrive.
If they get hot immediately, 10-6 is very doable as the regular season winds down for them. But it could be tough for this next week, especially due to the fact that Kobe Bryant sprained his ankle.
Houston Rockets (35-30, 7th Seed)
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I offer my congratulations to the youngest team in the NBA, because with only 17 games remaining, I am almost positive the Rockets have secured a playoff-berth. They have successfully stayed out in front of the Lakers by winning four their last six games.
The seventh seed is theirs if they can go 9-8 down the final stretch, but if they are real ambitious and want to get the sixth seed, it may take an 11-6 stretch. There is no telling what they are capable of in the first round of the playoffs.
Golden State Warriors (37-29, 6th Seed)
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The best bet as this point for the Warriors is to do everything within their power to hold on to the sixth seed heading into the postseason. The fifth seed is out of reach with only 16 games remaining in their schedule.
Their prospective first-round opponent will be either the Grizzlies or Clippers. They have had relative success against the Clippers this season and this would undoubtedly make for a very exciting, high-octane series. If they lose the sixth seed and fall down to the seventh or eighth seed, their chances of advancing will be greatly lessened.
Denver Nuggets (44-25, 5th Seed)
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The good news for the Nuggets is that the third seed is definitely within reach. However, the not-so-good news is that it will take quite a run from them to reach it. Right now, they sit 1.5 games back of the Grizzlies for third and the Clippers are sandwiched in between.
Where these three teams end up seeded will have a significant effect on the West’s playoff-picture. For many of the teams who consider themselves title-contenders (like the Nuggets), a favorable path to the finals is all it would take.
Ideally, Denver would prefer playing the Warriors, Rockets or Lakers rather than the Grizzlies or Clippers. With 16 games remaining, I would expect that an 11-5 or 12-4 record would secure the third seed for the Nuggets.
Los Angeles Clippers (45-21, 4th Seed)
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Over the past month, the Clippers got a little too comfortable in the third seed position in the Western Conference. They lost focus and that led to them losing games they should have ran away with. Their record is admirable, considering how bad they were just two seasons ago.
However, I find it hard to believe this team is content with having a solid regular season record. No, they won’t be happy until they win an NBA championship and the best way to do that would be by gaining the third seed going into the postseason.
They sit a mere half-game back of Memphis, and as evidenced in their 17-game win streak earlier this season, they know how to win in bunches. Look for them to take every game seriously and eventually attain the third seed.
Memphis Grizzlies (44-19, 3rd Seed)
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I have yet to read or hear that anybody would be excited to draw Memphis in a first or second-round series. That is mainly because, unlike most teams trending towards a preference of “going small”, Memphis stays big with their two best players down on the block, Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph.
The Grizzlies force opposing teams into changing their game-plans to fit whatever lineup they choose to go with. With ¾ of the season in the books, the third seed is realistically their ceiling. It offers them home-court advantage for the first-round, and an opportunity to advance to face either San Antonio or Oklahoma City.
They have a few more games left than most other teams in the playoff-hunt, so that means they will need to go roughly 13-6 -- maybe even 14-7 -- to keep this seed.
Oklahoma City Thunder (48-17, 2nd Seed)
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The battle for the top seed in the Western Conference is just as heated as the ones already mentioned among the other playoff-candidates.
It would be wise on the Thunder’s part to finish out strongly and secure home-court advantage throughout the Western Conference playoffs, especially because San Antonio just got done delivering OKC a butt-whooping this past week without Tony Parker.
Sitting a single game back of the Spurs is a good position for the Thunder right now. They have 17 games left to play, including an April 4 match-up with the Spurs at home. They will need to win at least three out of every four games from now until the season ends if they expect to catch San Antonio.
San Antonio Spurs (49-16, 1st Seed)
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The team with the second-best record, and the most overall wins, in the entire NBA is walking a fine line out in front of the rest of the field in the West. The Spurs are a deep, playoff-hardened team that will go as far as their collective bodies allow them to.
By that, I mean they are injury-prone and are forced to give guys nights off to ensure their health. It is hard for me to tell how important the top-overall seed is to head coach Gregg Popovich because he continually sits his star players whenever an ailment of any sort arises.
The coming weeks will tell us how badly the Spurs want it. If they do, it is theirs because they are more than capable of fending off attacks from the rest of the West.
Predicted Playoff-Picture
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- Thunder
- Spurs
- Clippers
- Nuggets
- Grizzlies
- Warriors
- Lakers
- Rockets
OUT OF PLAYOFFS: Mavericks, Jazz, Trail Blazers